While I was working in Holland, I got some terrible news from home — my Mam had been diagnosed with cancer. It was a massive bolt out of the blue, especially because it was lung cancer, as she’d stopped smoking over 20 years ago. She was only 57, so none of it made sense. It was my first real lesson of just how unfair life can be.

I came straight back to Barrow to help look after her and it was the hardest part of my life, even to this day. Sadly, she passed away just a few weeks after I returned, those final moments will live with me forever.

It hit me hard as I/we felt robbed, it all happened so quickly to someone who just didn't deserve to die. It took me a long time to get over this and to get my head right — I could barely face getting out of bed some mornings, never mind going back to work across Europe with a load of hairy-arsed contractors I hardly knew.

So I got myself right, mentally, and decided enough was enough, I never wanted to do any more Aircraft fitting, I wanted a new goal, something different (again) and something that might entertain me whilst living back in the town which got voted the UK's most miserable place to live!
The evidence I had of horses being backed and winning was still intriguing me, so I turned my attention back to something I’d discovered earlier — that 'Ceefax system' and the strange connection between well-backed horses and winners.

When I’d been working abroad, I’d bought a house back in Barrow. It was sitting there waiting to be renovated, so I moved in and started doing it up. One of the first things I set up was a PC in one of the bedrooms — my own little command centre. I wanted to dig deeper into what I’d seen on Ceefax: those odds that kept shortening before a race.

If I could prove that horses backed in from their morning odds to pre-race odds to starting price were consistently running well, I might really be onto something.

💡 I Might Be Onto Something

Every morning from 9 a.m., I’d sit at the PC and watch the Oddschecker racecards. I’d look for horses turning blue — meaning their prices were shortening. After about two weeks of this, it hit me: I really was onto something.

I’d watch a horse move from 25/1 all the way into 12/1, sometimes even shorter. It happened regularly. As soon as one bookie cut the price, the rest quickly followed. So I started getting on early when I saw the first few move. More often than not, the prices kept dropping through the day — and when the race went off, the horse often ran a blinder.

Sometimes I’d be sitting there holding a ticket for a horse I’d backed at 25/1, and it was now 6/1 on course. WTAF?!

Of course, that value only mattered if the horse won or placed — but they were doing exactly that. Around 70–80% of them were winning or hitting the frame. When you’re taking those kinds of prices, they don’t need to win often to make you good money. But they were winning and placing far more than they should.

What I’d seen on Ceefax months earlier now looked even stronger. By backing the same kinds of horses in the morning, I was getting far bigger odds for the very same bets.

💷 From Paper Trading to Real Money

Once I’d proved it to myself, I moved from paper trading to small stakes. I opened accounts with every bookie listed on Oddschecker so I could always grab the best price available.

Soon I was sitting there every morning from 9 a.m. to noon, twelve bookie tabs open, placing £2 each-way bets on horses being backed. The results spoke for themselves — my betting pot started to grow, the wins kept coming, and for the first time I thought, I’m really onto a winner here.

👉 Next chapter: Speculate To Accumulate